Marty Hope, Calgary Herald
Published: Saturday, June 27, 2009

You blinked, didn't you? After months of patiently waiting for the market to hit bottom--and watching interest rates, house sales and prices slide--you blinked.

And in that nanosecond, you might have missed it.

Don't be upset. You're not the only one.

I recall one real estate front-liner saying to me: "If you are waiting for the market to bottom and it does, then you've already missed it."

The real estate and housing recovery, at least in Calgary, appears to be underway.

Some mortgage rates have been nudged up, sales through the Calgary Real Estate Board are climbing steadily and prices are moving up.

On the new home side, builders are reporting an increase in show home traffic --and in actual sales.

Things are looking up.

Builders I have talked to report between 30 and 40 sales in each of the last two or three months.

It's not what it was before all of this financial whatever hit the fan, but it's better than it was even last fall.

Yep, look down. There's the bottom.

The Royal Bank has already gone out on a limb with a call that the recession will end in the third quarter--July to September.

Having said that, the bank's economists tempered the call by saying it will take until next year to gain full momentum, although it did advise consumers to "cast aside their caution."

But back to the housing sector.

So maybe you missed the bottom. There are still lots of good deals out there to be had.

Maybe mortgage rates have gone up, but they're still well below what are considered historically normal levels--and housing prices are still below the peaks of 18 months or so ago.

According to figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association, MLS sales across the country are less than one per cent below the same period last year.

"If you blinked, you may have missed the great correction in the Canadian housing markets," says Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets. "Low borrowing costs, more affordable prices in many markets, and some pent-up demand after the fall/winter sales freeze have provided some heavy-duty support for housing."

After kicking off 2009 with 550 sales, the national group has seen that total almost triple as the catalogue of available homes declines.

As for the average national price, it ended January at just over $413,000 and has increased each month since, gaining nearly $25,000.

"Prices had been declining through January, but since then we have seen continual increases," says Richard Corriveau, Calgary-based regional economist for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. "It's a cue to buyers that this represents a trend."

Like others, Corriveau says any real improvement likely won't occur until sometime in 2010.

"The current rally won't be significant, but it will show more strength as we move into next year," he says.

As for the new home sector, he says there are hopeful signs that the market is improving.

Builders are reporting stronger sales and a strengthening MLS resale market might be an indicator to the building industry of what is in store going forward.

Now, nobody is suggesting the prices are destined for nosebleed country again, or that sales will again dramatically outstrip listings-- or that builders will once again find themselves with too many sales and not enough lots.

No, that's not going happen for quite a while.

There are still some economic fundamentals that have to be straightened out before these kinds of scenarios can even be considered.

But note here: This is Alberta, after all. What happened to the housing markets as recently as the spring of 2007 will happen again. Never say never. The factors with the

most serious impact on housing are job creation and unemployment.

No job, no house--it's that simple.

Porter says that even with all the positives that are spilling into the market, "further gains will be much tougher to come by, especially with employment continuing to sag."

Figures from CREA regarding sales and prices would suggest the corner might have been turned. "This could be an indication the correction in the Canadian housing market may be nearing an end," says Millan Mulraine, economics strategist with TD Securities.

If you missed the bottom, so what? Jump in--the waters are still warm and friendly.

On behalf of my colleague, Kathy McCormick, myself and the New Homes team, our condolences to Frank Boyd and family on the loss of Frank's wife, Pam.

She was truly a spirited soul who was a shining light for the residential development industry. Her warmth, heartfelt kindnesses and joyous vitality will be missed.